Appendix A - Workshop agenda

Between Hope and Fear
A New Iran?

A workshop of the Academic Outreach program of the Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS)

1 June 2016
CSIS National Headquarters, Ottawa

Program

8:45 – 9:00      Objectives and structure of the workshop

9:00 – 10:30    Module 1 – Dynamics defining Iran’s domestic political stakes

• The forces influencing Iranian political life and the repercussions of the February 2016 elections
• Fateful selection: An extrapolative examination of how the next Supreme Leader may be chosen 
• Can Iran become “moderate”, and what are the implications for the West?

10:30 – 10:45  Break

10:45 – 12:15  Module 2 – Regional polarity, total competition and their repercussions

• The evolving role and limitations of Iran’s intelligence and security apparatus, and views on Tehran’s ballistic missile ambitions
• Measuring the effects of the Saudi-Iranian rivalry in Tehran
• Can Iran become a regional power? The low ceiling for Iranian influence in Iraq and Syria

12:15 – 13:15  Lunch

13:15 – 14:45  Module 3 – Global dynamics and strategy

• Residual ambitions: What place does the nuclear weapons program continue to occupy in Tehran’s political calculations and how solid is the JCPOA?
• Uncomfortable liaisons: Common interests and potential tensions in future Iran-Russia relations 
• The future prospects for relations between the United States and Iran, and the related security consequences

14:45 – 15:00  Break

15:00 – 16:30  Module 4 – A new Eldorado? Opportunities and challenges of re-integrating Iran into the world economy

• Once bitten, twice shy: Exploring Iran’s true potential for foreign investments across sectors
• What reforms are required for Iran to prosper, and how likely is it that they will be implemented? 
• The “resistive” economy: Gauging the influence of the military and IRGC on the economy

16:30 – 16:45  Workshop Lead’s summary