Threats to the Scarborough Southwest (ON), Terrebonne (QC), University—Rosedale (ON) by-elections - April 2026
Executive summary
On 8 March 2026, a writ was issued for federal by-elections in the electoral ridings of Scarborough Southwest (ON), Terrebonne (QC), and University—Rosedale (ON), with the election scheduled to take place on 13 April 2026. In response, the Security and Intelligence Threats to Elections (SITE) Task Force (TF) initiated enhanced monitoring and assessment of potential foreign interference (FI) threats and violent extremism (VE) targeting for the duration of the by-election period.
This report summarizes the SITE TF's activities and observations regarding foreign actors' intentions and FI and VE activities directed at the by-elections, covering the enhanced monitoring and assessment period from 8 March 2026 to 20 April 2026.
During this period, the SITE TF did not observe any activity consistent with known FI methodologies or violent extremist threats directed at the by-elections that fell within the mandates of SITE TF members.
Background
The SITE TF is a whole-of-government working group that coordinates the Government of Canada's collection and analysis efforts concerning threats to Canada's federal election processes. Created in 2019, the SITE TF is made up of experts from the Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS), the Communications Security Establishment (CSE), Global Affairs Canada (GAC), the Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP), and the Privy Council Office (PCO). For these by-elections, the Integrated Threat Assessment Centre (ITAC) held an observer role on the SITE TF. As of 1 January 2026, the SITE TF Secretariat is permanently housed in PCO, which coordinates the activities of the SITE TF.
The SITE TF provides a clear point of engagement with the security and intelligence community and coordinates intelligence review and analysis, provides situational awareness through threat assessments, reports, and briefings, and, where members' mandates permit, coordinates action to mitigate threats. The SITE TF works closely with other government agencies and stakeholders to ensure the integrity of the electoral process and to protect Canadian democracy.
SITE’s monitoring and reporting
The SITE TF monitoring period begins when the writ is issued for the by-elections until a week following their conclusion. The monitoring period for these by-elections began on 8 March 2026 and ended on 20 April 2026.
Throughout the monitoring period, the SITE TF convened weekly meetings to review and discuss intelligence collection, assessment, and open-source analysis related to FI and VE threats. The SITE TF published a comprehensive, classified baseline threat assessment (BTA) on 17 March 2026, which examined both FI and VE threats targeting or involving the by-elections. The SITE TF also provided regular updates to the Assistant Deputy Minister-level Elections Security Coordination Committee (ESCC) and weekly situation reports (SITREPs) to the Deputy Minister Intelligence Action Committee (DMIA), detailing potential FI and VE threats. The weekly SITREPs were also published on Canada’s Top Secret Network and disseminated to security-cleared stakeholders in other departments with a need-to-know. These updates were informed by information collected under each SITE TF member's respective mandate.
Foreign interference
The SITE TF defines FI as an “activity conducted or supported by a foreign state/actor that is detrimental to Canadian national interests and is clandestine, deceptive or involves a threat to a person.” In the context of Canadian electoral processes, the objective of FI is to affect electoral outcomes and/or undermine public confidence in Canadian democratic institutions.
Between 8 March 2026, and 20 April 2026, the SITE TF conducted monitoring activities to detect and assess potential FI targeting the ridings of Scarborough Southwest, University—Rosedale, and Terrebonne during the by-elections. No FI activities directed at the by-elections were observed during the SITE TF’s monitoring period.
Violent extremism
The SITE TF defines VE as “threats or use of acts of serious violence against persons or property for the purpose of achieving a political, religious, or ideological objective in Canada.”
Between 8 March 2026, and 20 April 2026, the SITE TF conducted monitoring activities to detect and assess potential VE activities targeting the ridings of Scarborough Southwest, University—Rosedale, and Terrebonne during the by-elections. No VE activities directed at the by-elections were observed during the SITE TF’s monitoring period.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the SITE TF did not observe any activity consistent with known FI methodologies or VE threats that fell within the mandates of SITE TF members during the by-election period for University—Rosedale, Scarborough Southwest, and Terrebonne. In future federal electoral processes, the SITE TF will continue to monitor and assess potential threats to Canadian electoral processes and work closely with other government departments and stakeholders to ensure the integrity of the electoral process and protect Canadian democracy.