3.9 – Introduction deck – Early discussion items: Trade & tariffs
- Exports are a significant economic driver of the Prairie economy. Top destinations include the U.S. ($203 billion, 82%), China ($13 billion, 5%), and Japan ($5 billion, 2%).
- China’s tariffs on canola oil, canola meal, peas, pork, and seafood products will impact $1.4 billion of Prairie exports to China.
- U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum will impact nearly $1 billion of Prairie exports (4% of the Canadian total).
- Broader U.S. tariffs on Canadian exports beyond energy would have varying impacts across the Prairie economy. Fertilizer and canola oil exports will largely be felt in Saskatchewan; medicines/pharmaceuticals, and transport vehicle exports will be impacted in Manitoba; and plastics, beef and canola oil exports will be impacted in Alberta.
- Tariffs are likely one of the contributing factors in the recent increase in Canada’s Employment Insurance recipients. Regular Employment Insurance (EI) beneficiaries, in February 2025, increased by 2.5% (+11,990). The total number of EI beneficiaries in February was 5.9% higher than in February 2024.
- The largest employment declines identified in the March Labour Force Survey report were in the most export-exposed provinces (Alberta and Ontario).
- The Prairie unemployment rate increased to 6.5% (0.4 percentage points higher than one year ago).
- The number of unemployed persons on the Prairies was 10% higher than a year ago.
- PrairiesCan is talking to clients to understand impacts on-the-ground and offering repayment flexibility for impacted clients.
- Support to impacted sectors will prioritize productivity growth, market diversification, and supply chain resilience.
- Support to companies includes helping them to become CUSMA-compliant to avoid current U.S. tariffs on non-compliant goods.
- RDAs are developing a tariff relief program, the Regional Tariff Relief Initiative, [Redacted] .