IRCC Minister Transition Binder 2021: Permanent Immigration - Immigration Levels Planning
[Redacted] appears where sensitive information has been removed in accordance with the principles of the Access to Information Act and the Privacy Act.
The levels plan: What is it?
- The Immigration and Refugee Protection Act (the Act) requires that the Government’s planned number of permanent resident admissions for the next calendar year be published via tabling in Parliament.
- In the levels plan, the Government sets the targets for admission of permanent residents. This allows us to communicate on key immigration priorities related to:
- Economic immigration
- Family reunification
- Refugee resettlement, protected persons and humanitarian commitments
- The levels plan also allocates funding for IRCC and its partners – for application processing and security screening, while supplementing funding for resettlement and settlement programming – and allows IRCC’s partners to plan for demand from newcomers.
The levels plan is a cornerstone of Canada’s managed migration system
The levels plan: Why is it important?
- The levels plan is a policy statement. It is the Government of Canada’s way of communicating what it believes is the “right” level of immigration, in which categories.
- The Act sets out 18 objectives for immigration, which can be summarized by the following core priorities:
- Support the development of a strong Canadian economy, with benefits shared across the country
- Support global humanitarian efforts – refugee resettlement and providing asylum
- Reunite families
- Contribute to building strong communities and uphold bilingual nature of Canada
- … all while protecting the health, safety, and security of Canadians
Permanent resident classes
The levels plan is organized to reflect four main classes of immigration, with distinct programs and categories in each.
- Economic immigration (2021 target of 232,500 admissions) – consists of permanent resident pathways by which newcomers are selected for their ability to contribute to Canada’s economy, and to ensure the benefits of immigration are shared across all regions of the country.
- When spouses and dependants apply and enter Canada with the main applicant, they are included as economic immigrants.
- Applicants apply to specific programs such as the Federal Skilled Worker Program, the Provincial Nominee Program, or the Atlantic Immigration Pilot Project. See Annex A for a complete list.
- High level of support for economic immigration among provinces/territories and stakeholders.
- Family class (2021 target of 103,500 admissions) – programs allowing eligible sponsors to bring their family members to Canada as permanent residents. Two core programs include: spouses and children; and parents and grandparents.
- Sponsorship of spouses and children are demand driven, while parents and grandparents are subject to intake controls.
- Refugees and Protected Persons (2021 target of 59,500 admissions) – Canada exercises its longstanding humanitarian tradition by offering refugee protection based on international laws and norms.
- Refugees are either identified via the United Nations Refugee Agency (who select and refer vulnerable refugees) for government assistance or by private sponsors for resettlement to Canada.
- Protected persons have applied for and received asylum in Canada because they cannot return to their home country safely for fear of torture, a risk to their life, or cruel or unusual punishment.
- Humanitarian and compassionate, and other (2021 target of 5,500 admissions ) - discretionary pathways to address deserving and exceptional cases not anticipated by the legislation.
Mix of Permanent Resident Admissions by 2023
- Economic Immigration – 59.3%
- Refugees and Protected Person – 14.5%
- Family Reunification – 24.8%
- Humanitarian, Companionate & Other – 1.4%
The levels plan: How is it developed?
Levels planning begins with the Government’s objectives and priorities for permanent immigration, and is informed by:
- Significant engagement with provinces and territories:
- The Act requires that the Minister of IRCC consult with provinces and territories.
- Quebec sets its own levels within the provisions of the Canada-Quebec Accord, under a separate consultation process with IRCC.
- Partnership and consultation with other government departments and agencies who help deliver our programs:
- Canada Border Services Agency
- Canadian Security Intelligence Service
- Global Affairs Canada
- Public Health Agency of Canada
- Public Safety Canada
- Royal Canadian Mounted Police
- Shared Services Canada
- Public opinion research and consultation with stakeholders such as settlement service providers, Francophone organizations, employers and employer associations
Levels planning is also informed by:
System capacity and downstream costs
- Settlement and integration needs of newcomers (which vary by immigration class)
- Impacts on regions, cities, and communities
- Demand on programming (settlement/resettlement, permanent resident cards, passports, citizenship)
- Litigation, access to information requests, corporate resources
Evidence from research and data
- Immigrant outcomes data
- Macro-economic, labour market and demographic information
- Expert/academic research on economic and social issues relating to immigration
Levels planning is also informed by operational realities:
- Processing applications: managing processing time commitments, service standards and client expectations.
- Inventory management: balances application intake and processing priorities to meet levels objectives and processing standards.
- There are mechanisms to limit volume and timing of intake.
- Monitoring of pressures from increasing volumes of applications, including from temporary residents (visitors, international students, migrant workers).
- Financial costs: change depending on immigration levels and mix.
- Human Resources and Accommodations: advanced planning is required to accommodate changes to the volume and mix from an operational perspective. This provides IRCC’s processing network and partners with enough lead time to hire/train staff and acquire office space and equipment.
- Landing lag: considers where an applicant is located (in Canada or overseas); once a permanent resident visa is issued it can take days or months for a client to finalize preparations before landing (typically this is approximately six months).
Each class and program has unique criteria and requires different expertise to assess applications and make decisions.
2021-2023 Multi-Year Levels Plan
Builds on a foundation for growth
- In 2017, the Government of Canada adopted a multi-year levels plan.
- The 2021 plan maintains a rolling three-year plan, by adding a new third year that seeks to increase levels to 421,000 in 2023 – 1.08% of Canada’s population. This will help address demographic challenges of Canada’s aging population.
- Adjusts previous targets: The plan aims to make up the shortfall in 2020 admissions, as a result of COVID-19, by carrying over unused spaces evenly across the three years (50,000 admissions each year), resulting in targets of 401,000 in 2021; 411,000 in 2022; and 421,000 in 2023.
Supports economic and labour market objectives
- Grows the Economic class by 7% from 2021 to 2023. In that same period, over half of that growth is allocated to regional economic programs, supporting regional needs and spreading the benefits of immigration across Canada.
Meets other key immigration objectives
- Grows levels space for Family Class to 104,500 admissions and Refugee resettlement to 36,000 admissions in 2023 to help reunite family members, and positions Canada to maintain its leadership in refugee resettlement.
- Increases Protected Persons in Canada and Dependents Abroad levels to 25,000 admissions in 2023 to help address high inventory and in recognition of the vulnerable position of this cohort.
- Highlights the Department’s Francophone Immigration Strategy objective to reach a target of 4.4% of French-speaking immigrant admissions outside Quebec by 2023.
Key Considerations: Impact of the Pandemic on Admissions
2021 Levels Targets (401,000 admissions) remain challenging
- Significant admissions shortfalls in 2020 led to increased targets for 2021.
- Continued public health and travel restrictions, impacting departmental operations and client behaviour, resulted in a focus on processing in-Canada applications
- Special measures and initiatives, including new pathways, public policies and Afghan resettlement efforts, have also placed additional pressure on volumes and the immigration mix outlined in the 2021-2023 Plan (Annex A).
Largest overall inventory in a decade: will shape the 2022 projections
- Upwards of 760,000 persons are projected to be in inventory at the beginning of 2022. This is an excess of 150,000 to 200,000 persons more than is required to support 2022 levels. This is largely due the inability to issue final decisions for overseas applicants in 2020 and increased intake in 2021.
- Will result in growing delays in processing: long processing times will persist beyond full business resumption and will result in increasing volumes of client inquires.
- Significant backlog of aging overseas economic and refugee class files. Key documents that support older files are expiring: processing will require considerable resources to finalize.
Public health measures in source countries will continue to impact admissions
- Ongoing COVID-19 restrictions, vaccination programs, and credentials in Canada and source countries around the world are likely to continue to slow processes and increase costs.
Key Takeaways
- [Redacted]
- In-year program decisions impact notional admissions and mix established in the plan.
- [Redacted]
- The Department must consult with provinces and territories on levels projections.
- Preliminary consultations with provinces and territories on the 2022 levels plan were held in summer 2021, with a commitment to resume consultations after the federal election, in October 2021.
- While the overall vision for immigration can be aspirational, setting achievable and realistic targets is necessary for funding, operational planning, program sustainability, and recovery from the ongoing impacts of COVID-19.
Annex A – 2021-2023 Multi-Year Levels Plan
The 2021-2023 Multi-Year Levels Plan, as tabled in Parliament.
| 2020 | Multi-Year Plan 2021-2023 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | ||
| Overall Admissions | 341,000 | 401,000 | 411,000 | 421,000 |
| (320,000 - 370,000) | (300,000 – 410,000) | (320,000 – 420,000) | (330,000 – 430,000) | |
| Federal High Skilled | 91,800 | 108,500 | 110,500 | 113,750 |
| (88,500 - 100,000) | (81,000 – 110,250) | (96,250 – 112,900) | (100,000 – 114,500) | |
| Federal Business | 750 | 1,000 | 1,000 | 1,000 |
| (500 - 1,400) | (400 – 1,250) | (250 – 1,250) | (500 – 1,250) | |
| Economic Pilots: Caregivers; Agri-Food; Rural and Northern | 5,200 | 8,500 | 10,000 | 10,250 |
| (4,100 – 6,500) | (4,900 – 9,250) | (4,500 – 10,500) | (4,500 – 11,000) | |
| Atlantic Immigration Pilot Program | 5,000 | 6,000 | 6,250 | 6,500 |
| (3,000 - 5,500) | (3,300 – 6,250) | (3,000 – 6,750) | (3,500 – 6,750) | |
| Provincial Nominee Program | 67,800 | 80,800 | 81,500 | 83,000 |
| (65,500 - 74,000) | (64,000 – 81,500) | (63,600 – 82,500) | (65,000 – 84,000) | |
| Quebec Skilled Workers and Business | 25,250 | TBD | TBD | TBD |
| (24,900 - 25,600) | (26,900 – 28,500) | (31,400 – 33,100) | (TBD – TBD) | |
| Total Economic | 195,800 | 232,500 | 241,500 | 249,500 |
| (186,500 – 213,000) | (180,500 – 237,000) | (199,000 – 247,000) | (207,000 – 253,500) | |
| Spouses, Partners, and Children | 70,000 | 80,000 | 80,000 | 81,000 |
| (65,500 - 72,000) | (61,000 – 81,000) | (60,000 – 81,000) | (60,000 – 82,000) | |
| Parents and Grandparents | 21,000 | 23,500 | 23,500 | 23,500 |
| (19,000 - 24,000) | (15,000 – 24,000) | (14,000 – 24,000) | (14,000 – 24,000) | |
| Total Family | 91,000 | 103,500 | 103,500 | 104,500 |
| (84,500 - 96,000) | (76,000 – 105,000) | (74,000 – 105,000) | (74,000 – 106,000) | |
| Protected Persons in Canada and Dependents Abroad | 18,000 | 23,500 | 24,500 | 25,000 |
| (17,500 - 23,000) | (17,000 – 25,000) | (19,000 – 25,000) | (19,500 – 25,500) | |
| Resettled Refugees | 31,700 | 36,000 | 36,000 | 36,000 |
| (27,500 - 33,000) | (22,500 – 37,000) | (23,000 – 37,000) | (24,000 – 37,000) | |
| Government Assisted | 10,700 | 12,500 | 12,500 | 12,500 |
| (10,500 – 11,500) | (7,500 – 13,000) | (7,500 – 13,000) | (8,400 – 13,000) | |
| Blended Visa Office Referred | 1,000 | 1,000 | 1,000 | 1,000 |
| (300 – 1,000) | (100 – 1,000) | (100 – 1,000) | (100 – 1,000) | |
| Privately Sponsored | 20,000 | 22,500 | 22,500 | 22,500 |
| (16,700 – 20,500) | (14,900 – 23,000) | (15,400 – 23,000) | (15,500 – 23,000) | |
| Total Refugees and Protected Persons | 49,700 | 59,500 | 60,500 | 61,000 |
| (45,000 – 56,000) | (39,500 – 62,000) | (42,000 – 62,000) | (43,500 – 62,500) | |
| Total Humanitarian and Other | 4,500 | 5,500 | 5,500 | 6,000 |
| (4,000 - 5,000) | (4,000 – 6,000) | (5,000 – 6,000) | (5,500 – 8,000) | |
| French-speaking immigration admissions necessary to meet 4.4% target | 12,144 - 16,544 | |||
The Government of Canada currently has a goal of achieving a target of 4.4% of French-speaking immigrants outside Quebec by 2023.
Programs and public policies introduced in 2021 will be reflected in the 2022-2024 levels plan.
Annex B - A Short History of Levels Planning: Key Milestones
- 1910 - Act Respecting Immigration – control of levels and mix delegated to Cabinet.
- 1976 - Immigration Act commits the Government for the first time to set – and announce – a levels target, and to consult.
- 1981 - Levels expressed as a range for the first time.
- 2002 - IRPA requires tabling of levels in Parliament.
- 2007-2014 - Stability in levels planning – planning range maintained at 240,000 to 265,000 (though targets increased toward the higher end by 2014). Focus on increasing economic admissions closer to 70% of target.
- 2016 - Admissions of resettled refugees almost quadrupled to respond to the Syrian crisis.
- 2017 - New baseline of 300,000 – economic admissions increased (though proportionally lower than before 2015); remaining admissions space balanced between family and refugees.
- 2018 - Reintroduction of multi-year levels with a three year plan, and moderate levels growth. Approach continued in 2019 and 2020.
- 2020 - The COVID-19 pandemic impacted the achievement of the projected overall levels target.
- 2021-2023 - Aims to make up 2020 admission shortfalls; growing immigration to 421,000 in 2023.
Annex C – Historical and Projected Annual Admissions
Permanent Residents Admissions 1865-2020
| Year | Admissions | Percentage of the Canadian population |
|---|---|---|
| 1860 | 6,276 | 0.2 |
| 1861 | 13,589 | 0.42 |
| 1862 | 18,294 | 0.56 |
| 1863 | 21,000 | 0.63 |
| 1864 | 24,779 | 0.74 |
| 1865 | 18,958 | 0.56 |
| 1866 | 11,427 | 0.33 |
| 1867 | 10,666 | 0.3 |
| 1868 | 12,765 | 0.36 |
| 1869 | 18,630 | 0.52 |
| 1870 | 24,706 | 0.68 |
| 1871 | 27,773 | 0.75 |
| 1872 | 36,578 | 0.97 |
| 1873 | 50,050 | 1.31 |
| 1874 | 39,373 | 1.01 |
| 1875 | 27,382 | 0.69 |
| 1876 | 25,633 | 0.64 |
| 1877 | 27,082 | 0.67 |
| 1878 | 29,807 | 0.72 |
| 1879 | 40,492 | 0.97 |
| 1880 | 38,505 | 0.9 |
| 1881 | 47,991 | 1.11 |
| 1882 | 112,458 | 2.57 |
| 1883 | 133,624 | 3.02 |
| 1884 | 103,824 | 2.31 |
| 1885 | 76,169 | 1.74 |
| 1886 | 69,152 | 1.51 |
| 1887 | 84,526 | 1.83 |
| 1888 | 88,766 | 1.9 |
| 1889 | 91,600 | 1.94 |
| 1890 | 75,067 | 1.57 |
| 1891 | 82,165 | 1.7 |
| 1892 | 30,996 | 0.63 |
| 1893 | 29,633 | 0.6 |
| 1894 | 20,829 | 0.42 |
| 1895 | 18,790 | 0.37 |
| 1896 | 16,835 | 0.33 |
| 1897 | 21,716 | 0.42 |
| 1898 | 31,900 | 0.62 |
| 1899 | 44,543 | 0.85 |
| 1900 | 41,681 | 0.79 |
| 1901 | 55,747 | 1.04 |
| 1902 | 89,102 | 1.62 |
| 1903 | 138,660 | 2.45 |
| 1904 | 131,252 | 2.25 |
| 1905 | 141,465 | 2.36 |
| 1906 | 211,653 | 3.47 |
| 1907 | 272,409 | 4.25 |
| 1908 | 143,326 | 2.16 |
| 1909 | 173,694 | 2.55 |
| 1910 | 286,839 | 4.1 |
| 1911 | 331,288 | 4.6 |
| 1912 | 375,756 | 5.09 |
| 1913 | 400,870 | 5.25 |
| 1914 | 150,484 | 1.91 |
| 1915 | 33,665 | 0.46 |
| 1916 | 55,914 | 0.7 |
| 1917 | 72,910 | 0.9 |
| 1918 | 41,845 | 0.51 |
| 1919 | 107,698 | 1.3 |
| 1920 | 138,824 | 1.62 |
| 1921 | 91,728 | 1.04 |
| 1922 | 64,224 | 0.72 |
| 1923 | 133,729 | 1.48 |
| 1924 | 124,164 | 1.36 |
| 1925 | 84,907 | 0.91 |
| 1926 | 135,982 | 1.43 |
| 1927 | 158,886 | 1.65 |
| 1928 | 166,783 | 1.7 |
| 1929 | 164,993 | 1.65 |
| 1930 | 104,806 | 1.03 |
| 1931 | 27,530 | 0.27 |
| 1932 | 20,591 | 0.2 |
| 1933 | 14,382 | 0.14 |
| 1934 | 12,476 | 0.12 |
| 1935 | 11,277 | 0.1 |
| 1936 | 11,643 | 0.11 |
| 1937 | 15,101 | 0.14 |
| 1938 | 17,244 | 0.15 |
| 1939 | 16,994 | 0.15 |
| 1940 | 11,324 | 0.1 |
| 1941 | 9,329 | 0.08 |
| 1942 | 7,576 | 0.07 |
| 1943 | 8,504 | 0.07 |
| 1944 | 12,801 | 0.11 |
| 1945 | 22,722 | 0.19 |
| 1946 | 71,719 | 0.58 |
| 1947 | 64,127 | 0.51 |
| 1948 | 125,414 | 0.98 |
| 1949 | 95,217 | 0.71 |
| 1950 | 73,912 | 0.54 |
| 1951 | 194,391 | 1.39 |
| 1952 | 164,498 | 1.14 |
| 1953 | 168,868 | 1.14 |
| 1954 | 154,227 | 1.01 |
| 1955 | 109,946 | 0.7 |
| 1956 | 164,857 | 1.03 |
| 1957 | 282,164 | 1.7 |
| 1958 | 124,851 | 0.73 |
| 1959 | 106,928 | 0.61 |
| 1960 | 104,111 | 0.58 |
| 1961 | 71,698 | 0.39 |
| 1962 | 74,856 | 0.4 |
| 1963 | 93,151 | 0.49 |
| 1964 | 112,606 | 0.58 |
| 1965 | 146,758 | 0.75 |
| 1966 | 194,743 | 0.97 |
| 1967 | 222,876 | 1.09 |
| 1968 | 183,974 | 0.89 |
| 1969 | 164,531 | 0.77 |
| 1970 | 147,713 | 0.69 |
| 1971 | 121,900 | 0.56 |
| 1972 | 122,006 | 0.55 |
| 1973 | 184,200 | 0.82 |
| 1974 | 218,465 | 0.96 |
| 1975 | 187,881 | 0.81 |
| 1976 | 149,429 | 0.64 |
| 1977 | 114,914 | 0.48 |
| 1978 | 86,313 | 0.36 |
| 1979 | 112,093 | 0.46 |
| 1980 | 143,137 | 0.58 |
| 1981 | 128,641 | 0.52 |
| 1982 | 121,175 | 0.48 |
| 1983 | 89,186 | 0.35 |
| 1984 | 88,272 | 0.34 |
| 1985 | 84,347 | 0.33 |
| 1986 | 99,355 | 0.38 |
| 1987 | 152,079 | 0.58 |
| 1988 | 161,588 | 0.6 |
| 1989 | 191,555 | 0.7 |
| 1990 | 216,452 | 0.78 |
| 1991 | 232,806 | 0.83 |
| 1992 | 254,790 | 0.9 |
| 1993 | 256,641 | 0.89 |
| 1994 | 224,385 | 0.77 |
| 1995 | 212,865 | 0.73 |
| 1996 | 226,071 | 0.76 |
| 1997 | 216,035 | 0.72 |
| 1998 | 174,195 | 0.58 |
| 1999 | 189,951 | 0.62 |
| 2000 | 227,456 | 0.74 |
| 2001 | 250,637 | 0.81 |
| 2002 | 229,048 | 0.73 |
| 2003 | 221,349 | 0.7 |
| 2004 | 235,823 | 0.74 |
| 2005 | 262,242 | 0.81 |
| 2006 | 251,640 | 0.77 |
| 2007 | 236,753 | 0.72 |
| 2008 | 247,247 | 0.74 |
| 2009 | 252,172 | 0.75 |
| 2010 | 280,689 | 0.83 |
| 2011 | 248,748 | 0.72 |
| 2012 | 257,887 | 0.74 |
| 2013 | 258,953 | 0.74 |
| 2014 | 260,404 | 0.73 |
| 2015 | 271,369 | 0.76 |
| 2016 | 296,378 | 0.82 |
| 2017 | 286,613 | 0.78 |
| 2018 | 321,035 | 0.87 |
| 2019 | 341,181 | 0.91 |
| 2020 | 184,372 | 0.91 |
| 2021 | 401,000 | 1.05 |
| 2022 | 411,000 | 1.06 |
| 2023 | 421,000 | 1.08 |
Permanent Residents Admissions 2000-2023
| Year | Total Number of Permanent Residents Admissions | Percentage of the Canadian Population |
|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 227,456 | 0.75% |
| 2001 | 250,637 | 0.81% |
| 2002 | 229,048 | 0.73% |
| 2003 | 221,349 | 0.70% |
| 2004 | 235,823 | 0.74% |
| 2005 | 262,242 | 0.82% |
| 2006 | 251,640 | 0.78% |
| 2007 | 236,753 | 0.72% |
| 2008 | 247,247 | 0.75% |
| 2009 | 252,172 | 0.75% |
| 2010 | 280,689 | 0.83% |
| 2011 | 248,748 | 0.73% |
| 2012 | 257,887 | 0.75% |
| 2013 | 258,953 | 0.74% |
| 2014 | 260,404 | 0.74% |
| 2015 | 271,369 | 0.76% |
| 2016 | 296,378 | 0.83% |
| 2017 | 286,613 | 0.79% |
| 2018 | 321,035 | 0.87% |
| 2019 | 341,181 | 0.91% |
| 2020 | 184,372 | 0.49% |
| 2021 | 401,000 | 1.05% |
| 2022 | 411,000 | 1.06% |
| 2023 | 421,000 | 1.08% |
Figures projected for 2021-2023.