Climate data and scenarios: synthesis of recent observation and modelling results, chapter 3.2.1
3.2.1 Summary tables for precipitation
Tables 5 and 6 provide values averaged over Canada and over each province and territory for the 50th (median), 25th, and 75th percentiles of precipitation change for the three future periods illustrated in Figures 9 and 10. These tables also provide the corresponding projections under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5. As the figures clearly show, projected precipitation changes are not constant across a province or territory, but the tables are provided to inform province- or territory-wide assessment activities that may need area-averaged information.
Table 5: Summary information for projected winter precipitation change (in % change from the 1986-2005 baseline period), averaged over December-February for three future periods and three RCPs. The table shows values for the 50th percentile (a), 25th percentile (b), and 75th percentile (c).
| (a) 50th Percentile | 2016-2035 | 2046-2065 | 2081-2100 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Canada | 5.4 | 9.1 | 9.1 |
| Alberta | 3.1 | 6.7 | 7.9 |
| British Columbia | 1.6 | 6.4 | 7.5 |
| Manitoba | 5.3 | 10.7 | 9.0 |
| New Brunswick | 4.8 | 6.7 | 3.5 |
| Newfoundland and Labrador | 3.2 | 5.8 | 6.3 |
| Northwest Territories | 7.1 | 11.9 | 10.9 |
| Nova Scotia | 2.8 | 2.5 | 3.0 |
| Nunavut | 7.2 | 13.6 | 15.4 |
| Ontario | 5.3 | 8.9 | 7.9 |
| Prince Edward Island | 3.0 | 5.2 | 5.3 |
| Quebec | 6.2 | 10.2 | 9.9 |
| Saskatchewan | 4.1 | 8.1 | 8.4 |
| Yukon | 7.3 | 9.7 | 11.0 |
| (a) 50th Percentile | 2016-2035 | 2046-2065 | 2081-2100 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Canada | 5.9 | 12.9 | 17.6 |
| Alberta | 5.9 | 10.8 | 11.6 |
| British Columbia | 4.3 | 8.7 | 10.8 |
| Manitoba | 6.4 | 12.7 | 16.5 |
| New Brunswick | 5.2 | 8.9 | 11.9 |
| Newfoundland and Labrador | 5.0 | 9.5 | 14.5 |
| Northwest Territories | 6.8 | 15.4 | 19.5 |
| Nova Scotia | 2.8 | 5.4 | 8.7 |
| Nunavut | 8.8 | 19.0 | 28.7 |
| Ontario | 5.7 | 12.9 | 16.4 |
| Prince Edward Island | 5.3 | 7.5 | 10.8 |
| Quebec | 6.5 | 14.9 | 21.2 |
| Saskatchewan | 5.7 | 11.0 | 11.7 |
| Yukon | 5.9 | 14.1 | 14.7 |
| (a) 50th Percentile | 2016-2035 | 2046-2065 | 2081-2100 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Canada | 7.2 | 18.1 | 37.8 |
| Alberta | 4.3 | 10.8 | 20.4 |
| British Columbia | 3.4 | 10.0 | 17.9 |
| Manitoba | 6.6 | 16.2 | 28.9 |
| New Brunswick | 5.8 | 11.4 | 19.0 |
| Newfoundland and Labrador | 4.8 | 12.0 | 23.2 |
| Northwest Territories | 8.2 | 19.7 | 42.9 |
| Nova Scotia | 3.7 | 8.3 | 13.9 |
| Nunavut | 10.9 | 29.1 | 66.4 |
| Ontario | 6.6 | 17.5 | 31.8 |
| Prince Edward Island | 5.3 | 10.7 | 17.1 |
| Quebec | 7.5 | 20.7 | 39.8 |
| Saskatchewan | 5.3 | 12.1 | 22.2 |
| Yukon | 5.9 | 15.8 | 29.9 |
| (b) 25th Percentile | 2016-2035 | 2046-2065 | 2081-2100 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Canada | -0.5 | 1.9 | 2.0 |
| Alberta | -1.8 | 2.5 | 2.0 |
| British Columbia | -2.6 | 1.5 | 1.7 |
| Manitoba | 0.4 | 3.5 | 3.6 |
| New Brunswick | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.9 |
| Newfoundland and Labrador | -2.4 | -0.1 | 1.0 |
| Northwest Territories | 1.2 | 5.2 | 5.1 |
| Nova Scotia | -0.1 | -2.2 | 0.3 |
| Nunavut | 1.5 | 4.5 | 6.0 |
| Ontario | 0.2 | 3.2 | 2.7 |
| Prince Edward Island | 1.2 | -2.3 | 2.1 |
| Quebec | 0.4 | 2.8 | 3.5 |
| Saskatchewan | -1.0 | 2.1 | 2.9 |
| Yukon | -0.8 | 3.4 | 4.7 |
| (b) 25th Percentile | 2016-2035 | 2046-2065 | 2081-2100 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Canada | 0.1 | 6.2 | 9.1 |
| Alberta | 0.6 | 5.7 | 5.7 |
| British Columbia | -0.6 | 2.7 | 3.4 |
| Manitoba | 0.6 | 7.8 | 9.2 |
| New Brunswick | -0.7 | 3.6 | 7.0 |
| Newfoundland and Labrador | -0.3 | 2.9 | 6.5 |
| Northwest Territories | 2.0 | 9.7 | 12.4 |
| Nova Scotia | -1.8 | 2.9 | 4.1 |
| Nunavut | 2.2 | 12.0 | 17.1 |
| Ontario | 1.8 | 7.6 | 10.0 |
| Prince Edward Island | -1.2 | 2.5 | 5.1 |
| Quebec | 0.9 | 7.5 | 13.2 |
| Saskatchewan | 0.1 | 5.6 | 6.7 |
| Yukon | 0.7 | 8.5 | 8.4 |
| (b) 25th Percentile | 2016-2035 | 2046-2065 | 2081-2100 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Canada | 0.4 | 10.5 | 24.8 |
| Alberta | 0.2 | 5.2 | 12.2 |
| British Columbia | -1.4 | 2.6 | 9.0 |
| Manitoba | 1.2 | 10.0 | 17.0 |
| New Brunswick | -0.2 | 6.0 | 13.1 |
| Newfoundland and Labrador | 0.6 | 6.5 | 14.2 |
| Northwest Territories | 2.5 | 12.9 | 29.7 |
| Nova Scotia | 1.7 | 3.0 | 7.7 |
| Nunavut | 2.2 | 19.7 | 47.5 |
| Ontario | 1.6 | 10.9 | 21.6 |
| Prince Edward Island | 1.4 | 3.4 | 8.3 |
| Quebec | 1.7 | 14.7 | 29.3 |
| Saskatchewan | 0.4 | 6.2 | 13.1 |
| Yukon | 1.0 | 9.7 | 18.9 |
| (c) 75th Percentile | 2016-2035 | 2046-2065 | 2081-2100 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Canada | 12.4 | 17.0 | 17.3 |
| Alberta | 9.9 | 13.1 | 12.6 |
| British Columbia | 7.6 | 12.7 | 14.0 |
| Manitoba | 10.6 | 17.0 | 15.3 |
| New Brunswick | 10.1 | 12.4 | 9.9 |
| Newfoundland and Labrador | 8.1 | 11.8 | 12.9 |
| Northwest Territories | 13.0 | 18.8 | 18.3 |
| Nova Scotia | 6.2 | 7.0 | 7.8 |
| Nunavut | 16.8 | 24.4 | 26.0 |
| Ontario | 10.8 | 14.9 | 13.4 |
| Prince Edward Island | 8.7 | 8.8 | 8.0 |
| Quebec | 11.6 | 17.2 | 16.9 |
| Saskatchewan | 8.1 | 14.1 | 12.7 |
| Yukon | 12.3 | 15.3 | 17.8 |
| (c) 75th Percentile | 2016-2035 | 2046-2065 | 2081-2100 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Canada | 12.1 | 20.2 | 26.4 |
| Alberta | 10.8 | 15.2 | 17.6 |
| British Columbia | 9.5 | 14.4 | 17.4 |
| Manitoba | 12.2 | 18.7 | 24.5 |
| New Brunswick | 10.1 | 15.2 | 19.1 |
| Newfoundland and Labrador | 11.7 | 16.1 | 20.8 |
| Northwest Territories | 11.9 | 22.6 | 27.3 |
| Nova Scotia | 6.1 | 9.3 | 14.4 |
| Nunavut | 15.7 | 28.7 | 40.4 |
| Ontario | 11.2 | 18.2 | 23.5 |
| Prince Edward Island | 8.1 | 11.3 | 15.1 |
| Quebec | 12.2 | 21.6 | 28.7 |
| Saskatchewan | 9.9 | 16.7 | 17.1 |
| Yukon | 10.7 | 19.3 | 21.2 |
| (c) 75th Percentile | 2016-2035 | 2046-2065 | 2081-2100 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Canada | 13.9 | 26.7 | 52.8 |
| Alberta | 8.7 | 17.9 | 28.8 |
| British Columbia | 8.4 | 17.8 | 27.1 |
| Manitoba | 12.3 | 23.6 | 41.8 |
| New Brunswick | 11.3 | 17.3 | 28.6 |
| Newfoundland and Labrador | 10.6 | 20.7 | 34.8 |
| Northwest Territories | 13.5 | 27.9 | 55.1 |
| Nova Scotia | 6.7 | 12.5 | 21.1 |
| Nunavut | 18.7 | 39.8 | 89.8 |
| Ontario | 12.1 | 23.9 | 41.7 |
| Prince Edward Island | 9.3 | 13.8 | 22.1 |
| Quebec | 13.9 | 29.5 | 52.3 |
| Saskatchewan | 10.6 | 18.7 | 30.6 |
| Yukon | 12.4 | 23.2 | 43.2 |
Table 6: Summary information for projected summer precipitation change (in % change from the 1986-2005 baseline period), averaged over June-August for three future periods and three RCPs. The table shows values for the 50th percentile (a), 25th percentile (b), and 75th percentile (c).
| (a) 50th Percentile | 2016-2035 | 2046-2065 | 2081-2100 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Canada | 2.8 | 5.0 | 5.2 |
| Alberta | 3.3 | 4.4 | 5.9 |
| British Columbia | 1.3 | 3.4 | 3.7 |
| Manitoba | 0.2 | 2.2 | 2.9 |
| New Brunswick | 2.8 | 1.1 | 3.9 |
| Newfoundland and Labrador | 3.5 | 4.8 | 4.3 |
| Northwest Territories | 4.5 | 7.4 | 6.8 |
| Nova Scotia | 2.8 | 2.2 | 3.6 |
| Nunavut | 4.6 | 6.2 | 5.9 |
| Ontario | 0.5 | 2.6 | 1.2 |
| Prince Edward Island | 0.6 | 1.9 | 2.7 |
| Quebec | 2.5 | 4.1 | 4.2 |
| Saskatchewan | 1.9 | 2.7 | 4.4 |
| Yukon | 5.0 | 7.4 | 6.8 |
| (a) 50th Percentile | 2016-2035 | 2046-2065 | 2081-2100 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Canada | 2.2 | 5.1 | 6.5 |
| Alberta | 2.3 | 2.3 | 4.1 |
| British Columbia | 0.2 | 0.7 | 0.9 |
| Manitoba | 0.6 | 2.0 | 2.2 |
| New Brunswick | 3.0 | 3.9 | 4.5 |
| Newfoundland and Labrador | 3.3 | 5.1 | 5.9 |
| Northwest Territories | 3.5 | 7.8 | 10.1 |
| Nova Scotia | 3.0 | 4.4 | 6.4 |
| Nunavut | 3.1 | 8.1 | 10.8 |
| Ontario | 0.4 | 2.7 | 3.3 |
| Prince Edward Island | 3.1 | 3.9 | 6.1 |
| Quebec | 2.6 | 5.2 | 5.1 |
| Saskatchewan | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| Yukon | 4.5 | 8.9 | 12.0 |
| (a) 50th Percentile | 2016-2035 | 2046-2065 | 2081-2100 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Canada | 3.0 | 6.4 | 10.6 |
| Alberta | 1.7 | 2.8 | 2.4 |
| British Columbia | 0.7 | 2.1 | 0.1 |
| Manitoba | 0.8 | 1.7 | -1.1 |
| New Brunswick | 3.2 | 4.2 | 7.8 |
| Newfoundland and Labrador | 3.5 | 6.6 | 11.5 |
| Northwest Territories | 4.5 | 11.1 | 17.8 |
| Nova Scotia | 1.7 | 4.3 | 6.8 |
| Nunavut | 5.2 | 11.3 | 22.9 |
| Ontario | 0.7 | 1.3 | -0.5 |
| Prince Edward Island | 2.5 | 5.4 | 6.3 |
| Quebec | 3.0 | 5.6 | 6.5 |
| Saskatchewan | 0.5 | 1.7 | -1.9 |
| Yukon | 4.5 | 13.2 | 21.1 |
| (b) 25th Percentile | 2016-2035 | 2046-2065 | 2081-2100 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Canada | -3.2 | -1.5 | -1.4 |
| Alberta | -2.9 | -1.4 | -0.3 |
| British Columbia | -4.0 | -2.8 | -2.3 |
| Manitoba | -4.2 | -2.5 | -2.7 |
| New Brunswick | -3.4 | -2.7 | -0.6 |
| Newfoundland and Labrador | -0.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| Northwest Territories | -1.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 |
| Nova Scotia | -3.9 | -3.8 | -2.9 |
| Nunavut | -2.4 | -0.8 | -0.9 |
| Ontario | -3.8 | -2.6 | -3.4 |
| Prince Edward Island | -3.7 | -4.3 | -1.4 |
| Quebec | -2.1 | 0.2 | -0.2 |
| Saskatchewan | -3.1 | -2.4 | -1.1 |
| Yukon | 0.9 | 2.8 | 2.0 |
| (b) 25th Percentile | 2016-2035 | 2046-2065 | 2081-2100 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Canada | -3.4 | -1.7 | -0.4 |
| Alberta | -3.5 | -4.2 | -2.9 |
| British Columbia | -4.7 | -5.0 | -5.4 |
| Manitoba | -5.4 | -4.7 | -4.5 |
| New Brunswick | -2.2 | 0.2 | -0.7 |
| Newfoundland and Labrador | -0.6 | 0.7 | 2.2 |
| Northwest Territories | -1.6 | 1.8 | 3.8 |
| Nova Scotia | -2.2 | -3.6 | -1.3 |
| Nunavut | -2.7 | 0.6 | 3.7 |
| Ontario | -4.5 | -3.0 | -2.0 |
| Prince Edward Island | -3.1 | -1.4 | -2.1 |
| Quebec | -1.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| Saskatchewan | -5.3 | -4.6 | -4.4 |
| Yukon | 1.1 | 4.0 | 6.2 |
| (b) 25th Percentile | 2016-2035 | 2046-2065 | 2081-2100 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Canada | -2.9 | -0.6 | 0.7 |
| Alberta | -5.1 | -3.4 | -7.8 |
| British Columbia | -5.1 | -4.0 | -8.3 |
| Manitoba | -4.1 | -4.5 | -9.1 |
| New Brunswick | -2.3 | -1.3 | -1.1 |
| Newfoundland and Labrador | -1.7 | 2.2 | 5.3 |
| Northwest Territories | -1.7 | 4.4 | 8.9 |
| Nova Scotia | -4.5 | -2.2 | -3.0 |
| Nunavut | -1.0 | 4.0 | 12.6 |
| Ontario | -3.5 | -3.8 | -8.2 |
| Prince Edward Island | -6.0 | -2.4 | -1.8 |
| Quebec | -1.6 | 0.8 | 0.0 |
| Saskatchewan | -4.9 | -4.8 | -9.2 |
| Yukon | 0.2 | 7.4 | 12.0 |
| (c) 75th Percentile | 2016-2035 | 2046-2065 | 2081-2100 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Canada | 8.9 | 12.0 | 12.4 |
| Alberta | 9.1 | 10.0 | 12.0 |
| British Columbia | 7.0 | 9.2 | 9.9 |
| Manitoba | 4.5 | 7.7 | 8.4 |
| New Brunswick | 5.8 | 8.6 | 10.1 |
| Newfoundland and Labrador | 7.3 | 9.8 | 8.8 |
| Northwest Territories | 10.0 | 13.5 | 13.1 |
| Nova Scotia | 7.3 | 8.0 | 9.2 |
| Nunavut | 10.8 | 13.4 | 13.8 |
| Ontario | 4.6 | 7.9 | 7.6 |
| Prince Edward Island | 8.1 | 7.7 | 6.6 |
| Quebec | 7.2 | 8.6 | 9.5 |
| Saskatchewan | 7.7 | 8.7 | 10.1 |
| Yukon | 9.7 | 12.6 | 12.9 |
| (c) 75th Percentile | 2016-2035 | 2046-2065 | 2081-2100 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Canada | 8.5 | 12.6 | 14.5 |
| Alberta | 8.4 | 8.4 | 10.9 |
| British Columbia | 5.4 | 6.3 | 7.8 |
| Manitoba | 5.2 | 7.5 | 8.7 |
| New Brunswick | 8.2 | 9.1 | 11.3 |
| Newfoundland and Labrador | 7.8 | 10.7 | 10.5 |
| Northwest Territories | 9.4 | 15.1 | 17.4 |
| Nova Scotia | 7.6 | 9.2 | 9.8 |
| Nunavut | 9.5 | 17.1 | 19.1 |
| Ontario | 5.3 | 7.4 | 8.3 |
| Prince Edward Island | 9.4 | 12.2 | 9.8 |
| Quebec | 6.9 | 10.5 | 10.9 |
| Saskatchewan | 5.7 | 7.4 | 9.1 |
| Yukon | 8.7 | 14.7 | 17.6 |
| (c) 75th Percentile | 2016-2035 | 2046-2065 | 2081-2100 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Canada | 9.3 | 14.2 | 21.3 |
| Alberta | 8.0 | 9.2 | 12.9 |
| British Columbia | 7.1 | 8.1 | 8.0 |
| Manitoba | 6.6 | 7.4 | 7.4 |
| New Brunswick | 6.6 | 9.9 | 14.8 |
| Newfoundland and Labrador | 7.9 | 11.2 | 18.6 |
| Northwest Territories | 10.9 | 18.2 | 27.5 |
| Nova Scotia | 5.8 | 8.5 | 15.3 |
| Nunavut | 11.2 | 20.1 | 34.2 |
| Ontario | 5.1 | 6.2 | 5.9 |
| Prince Edward Island | 5.9 | 9.4 | 15.6 |
| Quebec | 7.5 | 10.8 | 14.1 |
| Saskatchewan | 6.3 | 9.0 | 8.4 |
| Yukon | 9.8 | 18.6 | 30.8 |