Post-pandemic Provisional Federal Residency Forecasts
Research Highlights: Post-pandemic changes in 10-year population forecasts were evidenced for community residency.
Why we are doing this study
The Correctional Service of Canada (CSC) had experienced an unprecedented decline in the federal community supervision (-903 or 9.6%) population during the COVID-19 pandemic eraFootnote 1 . Therefore, a pause occurred in the annual forecasting exercise and in 2022 new 10-year community supervision population projections were estimated to fiscal year-end 2031 to 2032.Footnote 2 With a sharp rise in federal admissions observed in 2022 to 2023 with the reopening of the courts, refreshed provisional forecasts were undertaken to 2032 to 2033Footnote 3 .
Publication
What we did
Weekly snapshots of community residency counts from 1990 to 1991 to year-end 2021 to 2023 was derived from CSC’s Offender Management System. On 29 March 2023, residency was a condition for a total count of 2,637 or 32% of those 8,298 recorded to be on community supervision. More specifically, 1,471 (55.8%) were on Day Parole, 84 (3.2%) were on Full Parole with residency, 813 (30.8%) were on Statutory Release with residency and 269 (10.2%) were on Long Term Supervision with residency. The Community residency projections for day parole, full parole with residency, statutory release with residency and long-term supervision with residency were estimated to 2032 to 2033 for men and women combined. SAS / ETS software was used for analyzing univariate time series data and to select the best-fitting model.
What we found
As tabled below, on 29 March 2023, the actual count on community residency was 2,637 an increase of +81 or 3.2% over the pandemic period from 2,556. For 2032 to 2033, the 10-year forecast for community residency is estimated to be 2,559, a decrease by 2032 to 2033 of -38 or 1.4%. With the exception of the Atlantic region, all others are projected to decline.
| Item | Atl. | Que. | Ont. | Pra. | Pac. | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 to 22 | 208 | 520 | 788 | 525 | 515 | 2,556 |
| 22 to 23 | 189 | 596 | 737 | 590 | 525 | 2,637 |
| 32 to 33 | 202 | 577 | 735 | 573 | 513 | 2,599 |
| Net | +13 | +19 | -2 | -17 | -12 | -38 |
| Chagne | 6.9% | 3.2% | 0.3% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 1.4% |
Note: Regional and Total forecasts are run separately so numbers will vary. |
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What it means
Throughout the COVID-19 pandemic period there was a significant decline in both the federal institutional and community supervision populations. Then a provisional federal residency forecast was undertaken in 2022 which showed there will be a decline. Notwithstanding the community supervision population is still being projected to decrease over a 10-year horizonFootnote 3 , it appears that by 2032 to 2033 those requiring residency will be fewer but with less of a decrease than had been previously estimated.
For more information
Please e-mail the Research Branch. You can also visit the Research Publications section for a full list of reports and one-page summaries.
Prepared by: Larry Motiuk and Ben Vuong